TRUMP'S TARIFFS AFFECT THE UK Donald Trump has been unclear about whether he will impose tariffs on the UK but economists warn there are still ways Britain could be negatively affected by the president's wider trade policies even if it avoids being hit directly. The impact could be felt through slower growth in some of the UK's important trading partners. Industrial exports could be diverted from the US and flood the UK market and there could be impacts on our financial markets, including a possible increase to borrowing costs. Asked about future tariffs, Trump told the BBC on Sunday night: "The UK is way out of line but I'm sure that one… I think that one can be worked out." The president did not specify in which way he regarded the UK as being "out of line". One of the justifications Trump has given for imposing tariffs on countries is they have a trade surplus with the US - in other words they sell more to the US than they import from America. He has claimed these trade surpluses amount to "massive subsidies that we're giving to Canada and to Mexico". The tariffs on Mexico were paused for a month by Trump on Monday but the president has complained about unbalanced trade with the EU, saying on Sunday: "They don't take our cars, they don't take our farm products, they take almost nothing and we take everything from them. Millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products." So one way the UK might be seen to be out of line in the mind of Trump - and at risk of tariffs - is if Britain was also running a trade surplus with America. The UK's Office for National Statistics estimates the UK had a surplus of around £71bn in trade with the US in 2023, the most recent full year for which we have data. But the American statistics office, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, estimates the US had a surplus on its trade with the UK in that year of $14.5bn, around £12bn. How can both be true? The two stats agencies have looked at this discrepancy and agree it is due to different ways of measuring trade. One factor is the UK agencies, unlike their US counterparts, do not count trade flows through British crown dependencies such as the Isle of Man, some of which are significant financial services hubs and markedly affect the overall figures. Another key, related, element seems to be differences in the measurement of services trade - things such as banking and finance - as opposed to physical goods. But the bottom line is there is still a degree of uncertainty about what precisely is driving the overall difference in the statistics and both agencies are trying to work it out. In the meantime, the UK government will doubtless be hoping President Trump prefers to use the US data, which shows America is selling more to the UK than it is buying - and will focus on the goods rather than services trade. If the president were to impose a blanket tariff on UK exports to the US it would affect around £60bn of goods sent in 2023, according to the UK's figures. Pharmaceutical products accounted for £8.8bn of the UK's goods exports to the US in that year, cars £6.4bn and power generation machinery £5.2bn. While the immediate impact of the tariffs would be to make the price of these imported goods for US firms and consumers higher, over time they could reduce American demand for them, which could have a negative impact on the UK firms exporting them. There are other ways in which Britain could be negatively affected by US tariffs on other countries. Slower growth in the global economy and, in particular, the EU - with which the UK still does around half of its trade - would impede the UK's growth prospects. If our trading partners were to fall into recession due to tariffs, analysts say they would cut interest rates and their currencies would drop in value making British exports to them more expensive. "The US imposing tariffs on our other trading partners will still have a negative effect on the UK economy through its effect on supply chains and the exchange rate," said Ahmet Kaya, of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). Niesr has estimated that the 25% tariffs the US has threatened to impose on Mexico and Canada could reduce UK GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2025. Some economists warn exports - such as Chinese-made steel - that might get diverted from the US markets due to the new tariffs, could be sold at below the cost of production, or "dumped" in UK markets, which might have a negative impact on the sales of UK steel producers. Some analysts say higher US interest rates as a result of the tariffs could also spill over to UK borrowing markets. One of the reasons UK government borrowing costs, or Gilt yields, temporarily spiked upwards in January, was because American government bond yields had also risen. "The main threat to the UK economy from Trump's tariffs may well be the spillover from higher US interest rates, rather than tariffs themselves," says the economist Julian Jessop. "US and UK government bond yields are now moving in lockstep again. If the Fed [US central bank] is more reluctant to cut US rates, as seems likely, borrowing costs will be higher for longer in the UK as well." Higher borrowing costs could slow the UK economy and also put pressure on the UK government to cut public spending or raise taxes in order to keep within its chosen borrowing rules. 23rd January,2025

ILLEGAL MEAT ON MOST UK HIGH STREETS Efforts to keep potentially disease-ridden meat out of the UK are being undermined by post-Brexit border checks, a senior health official has said. The boss of the Dover Port Health Authority said illegal meat, which has not been through proper health checks, was now available on "most high streets" in the UK. European outbreaks of deadly animal diseases in recent months have left health authorities, Whitehall officials and many in the farming industry worried about the threat they pose to the UK. But the government has insisted the checks work and it will never "waver in its duty to support the UK's biosecurity". Under the post-Brexit system, checks on commercial vehicles do not take place at Dover itself. Instead, drivers are ordered to travel 22 miles (35km) away to a border control post at Sevington. But critics have warned that many lorries are simply failing to turn up for the checks, due to a lack of enforcement. Parliament's Environment Select Committee has now launched an inquiry into whether the system is working. Lucy Manzano, head of the Dover Port Health Authority, told MPs on the committee that the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) had been overstating the effectiveness of the system. She said: "Defra have continually stated that there are robust controls in place. There are not. They don't exist." She added that the department had failed to provide "any confirmation of how food would be controlled at the point it arrives, or more importantly, between the point it arrives and the inspection facility that is accessed 22 miles across". Ms Manzano said she had presented evidence to the government "to demonstrate that the system brought in place to safeguard this country from a biosecurity point of view… is not working". Defra refused to answer a recent Freedom of Information request from the BBC's Countryfile programme, asking how many vehicles were failing to turn up for checks at Sevington. The department claimed that releasing data about Sevington could inadvertently aid criminals looking for weak points in the UK's border controls. Ms Manzano claimed illegal meat has now become much more commonplace in high street shops - and that it is becoming increasingly difficult for consumers to spot if the product they are buying has gone through proper health checks. It is understood that the view inside Defra is that the post-Brexit checks are working as they should. Earlier this week figures showed that almost 100 tonnes of illegal meat was seized at the Port of Dover last year. Defra said it is "unequivocal that importing illegal meat products is unacceptable – which is why suspected products are routinely checked at the border to ensure they don't reach our shores". A BBC News investigation last year found that unprecedented levels of seizures had sparked fears of more organised criminal activity. A similar health check facility to the one at Sevington does exist on site at Dover, but it is understood that the government chose not to use it because of worries about potential traffic queues forming at the border. Ms Manzano said that decision was "not based on biosecurity" and added that "the very purpose of import controls is to keep the bad stuff out and contain it at first point of entry". Last month the UK government introduced strict restrictions on the import of German meat, following an outbreak of foot and mouth disease. But Ms Manzano said failures in the IT system introduced since Brexit meant that products which should have been undergoing checks were allowed to freely enter the UK for "at least six days". When the current system was introduced last year, the government also gave funding to Dover Port Health Authority to carry out spot checks on smaller vehicles directly at the border. Figures show the vast majority of illegal meat seized in the UK is caught through those spot checks. But Ms Manzano said that funding was due to run out in seven weeks and that without further government cash the checks would have to stop. Government discussions are ongoing about how to best fund border checks. It is understood the decision to put the checks at Sevington has likely had a direct negative impact on how much money goes to the Dover Port Health Authority. A Defra spokesperson refused to comment on ongoing spending decisions. 5th February,2025

FIVE WAYS CHINA IS HITTING BACK AGAINST US TARIFFS The trade war between the world's two biggest economies has escalated after China hit back against the introduction of tariffs by the US with measures of its own. Beijing has set out to target specific American goods with retaliatory taxes, among other measures, following the blanket 10% tariff introduced by President Donald Trump on all Chinese imports to the US. In some ways, this latest tit-for-tat is nothing new and builds on the long-running trade dispute between the nations, with tariffs having already been imposed and threatened on various goods since 2018. Trump has said he plans to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping, so a deal could yet be struck. But if China proceeds with its response on 10 February as planned, what could the impact be? Part of China's countermeasures to Trump's tariffs is to announce import taxes of its own on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) of 10%, and a 15% charge on crude oil. The response from Beijing means companies wanting to import fossil fuels from the US would have to pay the tax in order to do so. China is the world's largest importer of coal, but it gets most of it from Indonesia, although Russia, Australia and Mongolia are also among its suppliers. When it comes to the US, China has been increasing imports of LNG from the country, with volumes nearly double 2018 levels, according to Chinese customs data. But its overall fossil fuel trade is modest, with US imports accounting for just 1.7% of China's total crude oil bought from abroad in 2023. This suggests China is not dependent on the US and so the impact of the tariffs on its economy could be minimal. Rebecca Harding, a trade economist and chief executive of the Centre for Economic Security think tank, said China could easily source more supplies from Russia, where it has already been buying oil on the cheap as the Kremlin seeks to fund its war effort. On the flipside, the US is the world's largest LNG exporter, and so has plenty of other customers, particularly the UK and the European Union. As well as fuel, China has slapped a 10% tariff on agricultural machinery, pick-up trucks, and some large cars. But China is not a big importer of US pick-ups and it gets most of its cars from Europe and Japan, so a 10% tariff on an already small number of imports would not hit consumers too hard. In recent years, China has increased investments in farm machinery to enhance production and reduce reliance on imports, and to strengthen its food security. So the introduction of tariffs on agricultural machinery might be another move to try to boost domestic industry. Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at consultancy Capital Economics, said all the tariff measures were "fairly modest, at least relative to US moves". He suggests that China's targeted goods represent about $20bn (£16bn) worth of annual imports - around 12% of China's total imports from the US. "This is a far cry from the more than $450bn worth of Chinese goods being targeted by the US." But he said China had "clearly been calibrated to try to send a message to the US [and domestic audiences] without inflicting too much damage" The Chinese authorities have also announced some non-tariff measures, one of which is an anti-monopoly investigation into US tech giant Google. It is unclear what the investigation will involve, but for context, Google's search services have been blocked in China since 2010. The company still has some business presence in the country through providing apps and games to the Chinese markets by working with local developers. But China only generates about 1% of Google's global sales, which suggests if it cut ties entirely with the country, it wouldn't be much worse off. China has added PVH, the American company that owns designer brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, to its so-called "unreliable entity" list and accused them of "discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises". The list, which has other US firms on it, was created in 2020 by Beijing amid the heating up of trade tensions. For Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, being on China's list will make it harder to do business in the country. They may face sanctions, including fines, and having the work visas of their foreign employees revoked. Regulators will also go to factories of the firms to investigate operations, according to Andreas Schotter, professor of international business at Western University in Ontario, Canada. The US has its own "entity list", which bars certain organisations from buying products from US companies without approval from Washington. "China is hitting back in the same way President Trump is accusing Chinese companies. This is all part of the US driven de-coupling of the US and China," Prof Schotter added. While tariffs have been placed on the companies wanting to import goods from abroad, China has also imposed export controls on 25 rare metals. Some of the metals are key components for many electrical products and military equipment. China has mastered the ability to refine such metals, and produced almost 90% of global refined output. The restricted list includes tungsten, which is difficult to source and a crucial material for the aerospace industry. While there are restrictions on exports, Mr Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics, said it was notable that the critical metals China imports from the US, which are used to make high-end chips, semiconductor machinery, pharmaceuticals and aerospace equipment were not targeted in any measures. The experience of previous rounds of restrictions suggests exports will drop sharply as companies scramble to get licences, a process that takes several weeks. When it comes to the impact of the restrictions, it appears the US has a plan. On Monday, Trump said he wanted Ukraine to guarantee the supply of more rare earth metals in exchange for $300bn of support in its fight against Russia. 5th February,2025

MORE THAN 10 LAWSUITS EXPECTED AGAINST DIDDY Who is Sean 'Diddy' Combs? Sean "Diddy" Combs, one of the most successful rappers and music moguls in the US, will soon be on trial for sex trafficking and racketeering charges. He also faces dozens of lawsuits from individuals who say they were harmed and exploited by the rapper through drugs, alcohol and physical abuse. Mr Combs has pleaded not guilty to the criminal charges and rejected the accusations in the individual lawsuits, calling them attempts "for a quick payday". If convicted, he faces up to life in prison on the racketeering charge and a minimum of 15 years for sex trafficking. Mr Combs - who has also gone by the names Puffy, Puff Daddy, P Diddy, Love, and Brother Love - essentially rewrote the rules of hip-hop shortly after emerging into the music scene in the 1990s. His early music career success included helping launch the careers of Mary J Blige and Christopher Wallace - aka Biggie Smalls, or the Notorious B.I.G. His music label Bad Boy Records soon became one of the most important labels in rap and expanded to include Faith Evans, Ma$e, 112, Mariah Carey and Jennifer Lopez. Mr Combs also had a prolific business career outside of music, most notably, signing a deal with British drinks company Diageo in 2007 to promote the French vodka brand, Cîroc, in the US. In 2023, he released his fifth record The Love Album: Off The Grid and earned his first solo nomination at the Grammy awards. He also was named a Global Icon at the MTV Awards that year. During his decades of achievement, Mr Combs also faced multiple legal challenges. In May 1999 he was arrested on suspicion of assault. In March 2001 he was found not guilty on charges of gun possession and bribery in connection with a 1999 shooting at a New York club. In 2003, he was sued for threatening his business partner with a baseball bat, and in 2015 he was arrested over assault charges against his son's football coach. In the federal criminal case, Mr Combs is charged with racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking and transportation to engage in prostitution. He is accused of kidnapping, drugging and coercing women into sexual activities, sometimes by using firearms or threatening them with violence. In a raid on his Los Angeles mansion, police found supplies that they said were intended for use in orgies known as “freak offs”, including drugs and more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil. Separately, Mr Combs faces a number of lawsuits accusing him of rape and assault. Tony Buzbee, a Texas lawyer handling some of these cases, said that more than 100 women and men from across the US have either filed lawsuits against the rap mogul or will do so. In December 2023, a woman known in court papers as Jane Doe alleged that she was "gang raped" by Mr Combs and others in 2003, when she was 17. She said she was given "copious amounts of drugs and alcohol" before the attack. Mr Combs' legal team dismissed the flurry of lawsuits as "clear attempts to garner publicity." His current legal issues began when he was sued by his ex-girlfriend Casandra Ventura, also known as Cassie, in late 2023. She accused him of violently abusing and raping her. That lawsuit was settled for an undisclosed amount a day after it was filed, with Mr Combs maintaining his innocence. Since then, multiple women have filed lawsuits accusing Mr Combs of sexual assault, with accusations dating back to 1991. He denies all claims. His controversial history with Ms Ventura resurfaced in 2024, when CCTV footage leaked by CNN showed Mr Combs kicking his former girlfriend as she lay on a hotel hallway floor in 2016. He apologised for his behaviour shortly afterwards, saying: "I take full responsibility for my actions in that video. I was disgusted then when I did it. I'm disgusted now." Mr Combs has consistently denied the allegations made against him in the civil lawsuits, and has previously labelled them as "sickening" – suggesting they were "made against me by individuals looking for a quick payday". In a statement issued at the start of February - in response to a claim from a lawyer that he would face more than 10 more civil lawsuits - Diddy's own lawyer restated that his client was innocent. In a statement to the BBC in response to the federal criminal charges, his lawyer said: "Mr Combs and his legal team have full confidence in the facts and the integrity of the judicial process. "In court, the truth will prevail: that Mr Combs never sexually assaulted or trafficked anyone - man or woman, adult or minor." Mr Combs has been held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York since his arrest on 16 September 2024. His lawyers have argued for his release in the run-up to the trial, citing the jail’s “horrific” conditions. Critics describe the prison as overcrowded and understaffed, and describe a culture of widespread violence. A New York federal judge denied the request for bail, arguing that Mr Combs was a “serious flight risk”. Prosecutors have alleged that Mr Combs has been breaking prison rules by contacting potential witnesses ahead of the sex trafficking trial. They accuse him of "relentless efforts" to "corruptly influence witness testimony". 5th February,2025

GHANA WANTS MORE FOR ITS CASHEWS Ghana is the world's third-biggest exporter of unprocessed cashew nuts, behind Ivory Coast in first place, and Cambodia in second. To produce the crop, around 300,000 Ghanaians make at least part of their living growing cashews. Nashiru Seydou, whose family have a farm in the country's north-east, some 500 miles (800km) from Accra, is one of them. He says the work is hard, and unreliable supply chains and volatile wholesale prices make survival difficult. "We are struggling. We can use the sunlight, the fertile land, to create more jobs," he says. "I'd be happy if the government comes to our aid and helps support our industry." He tells me that he currently gets around $50 for a large 100kg sack of unshelled cashews. "It's amazing," says Bright Simons, an entrepreneur and economic commentator in Accra, who has studied the numbers. "Roasters and retailers buy the nuts from farmers for $500 a tonne, and sell to customers [both at home and abroad] for amounts between $20,000 and $40,000 a tonne." As a whole, Ghana grows about 180,000 tonnes of cashews annually. More than 80% is exported, and in raw, unshelled form. This generates some $300m in export revenues, but means that Ghana misses out on the significantly higher returns you get from roasted, ready-to-eat cashews. Mildred Akotia is one person trying to increase the amount of cashews that are shelled and roasted in Ghana. She is the founder and CEO of Akwaaba Fine Foods, which currently processes just 25 tonnes a year. Ms Akotia denies any suggestion that she and others like her are price-gouging. The packaging and roasting machinery a western business would automatically use in this industry, she says, is out of reach for her because of the high cost of credit in Ghana. "If you go to a local bank, it will cost you 30% interest to get a loan," she complains. "As a manufacturer you tell me how large your margins are that you can afford that kind of interest? We've had to rely on what we can get: soft loans from relatives and grants from donor agencies." She says that this situation is why less than 20% of Ghana's cashews are processed locally. The bulk are scooped up and exported to big factories in countries like India, Thailand and Vietnam. Remarkably, some of those packaged nuts are then exported back to Ghana, where they are sold for the same price as domestically roasted cashews. This is despite the 20,000-mile sea freight round trip, and import costs. It is a similar picture for rice, which is exported to Ghana from Asia and sold at low prices, despite Ghana also growing the crop itself. Back in 2016 the Ghanaian government experimented with an export ban on raw cashews in order to encourage homegrown processing. However the policy had to be abandoned within a couple of weeks after uproar from farmers and traders. Without available cheap loans, it wasn't possible for sufficient new Ghanaian roasters to enter the market. So the price of raw nuts crashed, and many started rotting for want of a buyer. More recently there has been talk of increased tariffs on raw cashew exports and bans on exporters purchasing cashews directly from farms. But all these policy interventions miss a key point, according to Mr Simons. A big challenge for local producers, he says, is to work harder on the basics of doing business, and growing their companies. "In order to be efficient at this, you need scale," he says, adding that firms need to promote eating cashews to make it more widespread in the country. "You need a lot of a Ghanaians consuming the nuts, not just a small middle class". Prof Daron Acemoglu, a Turkish-American economist, agrees that building a strong local market is important for Ghana's cashew industry. He was one of last year's winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, for his work on the struggles facing low-income economies, and in particular their home-grown businesses. Yet he says that the first priority should be improving access to international markets for processed Ghanaian cashews. "These firms are dealing with workforces that aren't properly skilled, they have infrastructures that aren't working, they are constantly in fear of corrupt officials, or rule changes, and also it's very difficult to reach foreign markets, he says. "They need the foreign market because the domestic market is small, and their own government has very little capacity [to boost it]." He also wants to see the Ghanaian government improve the network of roads and railways to ease the cost of transportation. But Mr Simons reckons the onus should now be on Ghanaian businesses themselves, to do the basics to enhance the branding and marketing of cashews. As it is, he says, many of the country's most enterprising business people are just leaving Ghana for better paid opportunities abroad because of the red tape and cronyism in Ghana are so prohibitive. "There's a massive brain drain," he says. "My theory of why Africa's economic development has been slow is because we focus too much on the supply side, but the real beauty is in demand, creating a consuming class of cashew-eating enthusiasts, and you don't have an entrepreneurial class that can create demand transformation." He says the same argument applies to Ghana's other bigger exports, like gold and chocolate, neither of which gets much value-addition within Ghana before getting exported to the West. Mildred Akotia hopes she might be one of those entrepreneurs to buck the trend. She now wants to build her own logistics arm, to be able to process the cashews direct from the farm gate. "I have a lot of calls from the UAE, from Canada and America. Currently we can't meet demand. We can't get enough kernels to roast. "There's a ready market both locally and internationally. My branding is good, my marketing is good. My dream is to give a facelift to Ghanaian processed foods." 5th February,2025

REAL ESTATE MARKET SET TO HIT US$533.30BN IN 2025 The global series of The Ghana Property & Lifestyle Expo (GPLE) has announced record attendees and retail estate transactions at its “three continents in three months” event. Since its launch nearly nine years ago, the GPLE and its founders’ sisters Anna and Victoria Agyekum, have been at the forefront of transforming the real estate market in Ghana driving its continuing boom in investment, property, and tourism. With residential real estate in Ghana set to hit US$456.10bn by the end of 2025, analysts also reveal the sector will maintain a steady growth of 3.44% each year between now and 2029. Applauded as a safe and transparent platform for the diaspora to invest in Ghana, the Expo kicked off in Washington DC, in October, before heading to London, in November and concluded in Accra in December. Diana Afriyie Addo, Head of Trade & Investment at the Ghana High Commission UK and Ireland, and event speaker in Ghana in December said; “The GPLE is not just an exhibition; it’s a critical platform for sharing accurate, transparent information to empower attendees to invest confidently in Ghana’s real estate market. “With Ghana experiencing a property and tourism boom, events like these are vital for fostering sustainable growth and wealth creation. We work with organisations and companies in the private sector like On Point Property Management, which are the engine of growth for our country.” As the Ghana’s economy continues to grow, its peak in 2024 was Q3 with a growth of 7.2%, the real estate sector is seeing a constant demand for affordable housing due to urbanisation and population growth. Victoria Agyekum, Co-Founder of On Point Property Management, commented; “Following a successful 2024 for the real estate industry in Ghana, this year is already set to continue the upward growth boom in residential real estate – primarily due to the consistent interest from global investors, the diaspora, and local stakeholders to Ghana’s burgeoning property market. “Accra is fast becoming a hot spot for tourists, and future-residents who are looking for a place to call home, due to its innovation, opportunity, and cultural richness.” With the support of private-sector champions, Access Bank (Ghana) Ltd the GLPE bridges gaps, empowers the diaspora, and drives economic growth. The Global Expo featured a line-up of influential speakers, including: Keith McMahon MBE – UK’s Deputy High Commissioner to Ghana; Evans Amoah-Nyamekye – Head of Diaspora Affairs for Ghana Bar Association; His Lordship, Justice Barima Yaw Kodie Oppong – Director of Legal Education, Ghana School of Law, and Justice of the Court of Appeal of Ghana; Diana Afriyie Addo, Head of Trade and Investment Ghana High Commission UK & Ireland and Marsha de Cordova MP, Battersea, London UK. On Point director and co-founder Anna Agyekum added: “With Ghana attracting substantial foreign property investors, there has been an increase in luxury apartments and gated communities in recent years. “With a high housing demand, and high rental yields which can range typically from 6% to 10% – property investors are seeing a solid return on their investments, and one which will only increase in value as Ghana real estate market remains stable. We are very excited to support the growth of Ghana and witness its boom over the next five years.” Ghana Property & Lifestyle Expo 2025 global series will return to Washington DC in October, London, UK in November and Accra, Ghana in December. 5th February,2025

GHANA'S INFLATION DROPS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 5 MONTHS However, food inflation remains persistently high, rising from 27.8% to 28.3%. Month-on-month prices increased by 1.7%. Government Statistician Samuel Kobina Annim told the media about the impact of slowing non-food inflation while warning that food prices continue to rise. “Although the rate of inflation has slowed by 0.3 percentage points, the figure of 23.5% is still the second highest in the past nine months,” said Annim . Adding that, “In January 2025, general price levels of goods and services went up by 23.5%. Between January 2024 and January 2025 general price of goods and services went up by 23.5%," the government statistician stated. This indicates a disinflation as the rate of inflation has slowed down by 0.3% percentage points slowing down from the year-end 2024 figure of 23.8% to 23.5% for the month of January 2025.” Leadership changes Beyond presidential transitions, this inflation report coincides with a major leadership change at the Bank of Ghana. President John Mahama has nominated Johnson Asiamah as the new central bank governor , replacing Ernest Addison, who had held the position since 2017. Global economic context Globally, a trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China threatens to disrupt supply chains and push up the cost of imports. In response, Asiamah hinted at potential adjustments to monetary policy, stating during a press briefing in Accra, “We are focused on our mandate and may consider a few tweaks to policy in light of current challenges.” Inflation trends and monetary policy Ghana’s inflation rate has remained above the central bank’s 10% upper target limit since September 2021. The depreciation of the cedi, driven by the country’s debt challenges, has increased the cost of imports. To combat inflation and stabilise the currency, the Bank of Ghana has more than doubled the key interest rate during this period. Despite maintaining the interest rate at 27% during its last two meetings, the Bank of Ghana projects that price pressures may gradually ease as the government tightens public finances under Mahama’s administration. Meanwhile, the Mahama-led government is expected to outline its comprehensive economic strategy in March. Historical background of inflation Ghana has faced severe economic challenges, including major dips in key sectors like cocoa and gold, increasing inflationary pressures. Recent historical inflation rates include a surge to 38.11% in 2023, up by 6.85 percentage points from the previous year. This followed a rise to 31.26% in 2022, which was up by 21.28% from the previous year. In 2021, inflation stood at 9.97%, showing a slight increase from 9.89% in 2020, which had itself risen by 2.74 percentage points from 2019. The new central bank administration has acknowledged that it will take time for inflation to return to its target range of 6% to 10%, citing persistent economic challenges. 5th February,2025

UMG’S AFRICA EXPANSION CONTINUES Yesterday we wrote about Universal Music Group’s announcement that Afrobeats label Mavin Global is now leading all of its business in Nigeria. Today there is more news about the major’s expansion in sub-Saharan Africa. Its artist and label services division Virgin Music Group has inked a partnership with RainLabs in Ghana. The latter describes itself as a boutique music marketing company, with offices in Accra and London. It also offers digital distribution, PR and brand partnership opportunities to the artists that it works with. Both companies said that the focus for the partnership will be on helping more African artists break globally. “We trust this is the right time to elevate African talent to new heights and are eager to see the impact this collaboration will bring,” said RainLabs boss Albert Donkor. 5th February,2025